What is Value Bets

Value bets are bets that you make on advantage over the bookmaker, exploiting the mistakes of the market. They are also known as bets +EV.

EV stands for Expected Value, which basically means how much you will earn with every dollar (or other currency) wagered in the long-term. If the EV value is positive, it means that even if you lose a particular bet, you do it several times, in the long-term you will make a profit because your wins will cover all your losses.

The EV can be calculated knowing the probability of an event happening and analysing the odds that the bookmaker is offering.

To know the EV first we need to know the fair price for a probability, and for that, using an example of a 60% chance of happening, just do the calculation: 1 / 0.60. Then we will find the fair odds of 1.67. This value is the minimum that the bookmaker must offer to be a +EV bet. Any value below this will be a -EV bet, meaning you will be losing money in the long-term. The higher the EV the higher your profit in the long-term.

Now knowing this we can find the Value Bets. Our system offers accurate probabilities, based on several statistical and human factors, analysing thousands of matches in our database, thus having the historical certainty of the chance of a certain event occurring.

Having the exact probabilities you can look at bookmakers for odds that are out of order and paying more than they should. You can use our calculator to find the fair probability and know the EV quickly.